Barry Cowan Blog

Barry Cowan blog: A-Rod needs to be A-Plus
- Sun 05 Jul '09
Our editor at large says that belief is crucial for the American if he is to stop Roger Federer making history in the Wimbledon final

Andy Roddick produced a stunning performance in his semi-final win against Andy Murray, but to go to the next step and win the final he needs to play a career-defining match in the final.

The No.6 seed knew that he had to commit to every shot in the semi-final to be competitive – and did so in impressive fashion – but it will be an even more difficult prospect against an in-form five-time champion Roger Federer.

Roddick served at an incredible 72% on his first serve against the Brit and won 80% of those points. But, unlike Murray, Federer will be more aggressive on the returns, meaning the two-time Wimbledon finalist won’t be quite as comfortable on his service games.

I was surprised how dominant Roddick was with his forehand against Murray. He has clearly worked on hitting the shot earlier and more aggressively. His success rate at the net against Murray will also give him a lot of confidence ahead of trying to solve the conundrum of beating the great Roger Federer. The 14-time Grand Slam champion has only dropped his service three times in the tournament, so service breaks are always going to be at a premium.

Federer will be more aggressive on the returns, meaning Roddick won’t be quite as comfortable…

When Federer and Roddick met in the final at Wimbledon four years ago, Roddick won 67% of the points on his first serve. I expect the main discussion he’ll be having with his coach Larry Stefanki will be coming up with a plan to hold comfortably, rather than breaking. After all, he will back himself should the set go the distance – Roddick has an amazing record of wining 26 out of 30 tie-breaks this year, and this will be his best chance to cause a major upset.

Andy Roddick was full of emotion after his big win: maybe it was the shock of beating a player who has had the better of their previous meetings. Somehow Roddick has to convince himself that he can beat Federer in the final. But I don’t see this happening.

Federer is the huge favourite because he’s a more complete player, also and equally as important he has totally dominated Roddick, winning 18 of their 20 matches they have played. In the Grand Slams Federer has won all seven of their matches and has dropped a single set just twice.

Roddick will have to be brave from the start and hope he can catch Federer cold early on. But Federer is the master at keeping his cool and I don’t expect him to panic at any stage during the final.

I hope it will be a competitive match but I expect Federer to win in three or possibly four sets and, with a record 15 majors, create history as the undoubted best player of all time.
Barry Cowan blog: Sister act
- Sat 04 Jul '09
The tennishead editor at large considers the repeat of last year’s Wimbledon final – will Venus beat little sis Serena again this time?

At the start of the tournament I predicted Serena would win Wimbledon, and for the two-time champion to beat her sister Venus in the final – and I’m compelled to stick with my original pick.

If you weigh up the form and history at Wimbledon of both the finalists then Venus has to start the favourite. The defending champion is arguably in the form of her life in reaching the final – she has lost only 20 games in her 6 matches and has won her last 18 matches at Wimbledon without dropping a set.

As good as Venus was in the semi final, Dinara Safina was hopeless. The world No.1 has lost easily in her three Grand Slam final appearanes and she just hasn’t performed on the big occasion. It happened again on Thursday, the self-doubt to perform was again very evident against the American.

The final of any sport is all about watching the best, and we will have that on Saturday afternoon

But Serena’s my pick. After her epic semi final victory against the excellent Elena Dementieva it will be tough for the younger Williams to be at 100% physically, but mentally she will benefit from being tested to the full against the Russian, and knows going into the final that she can produce her best tennis under severe pressure.

Serena hit 20 aces in her win and served incredibly well on the big points. The American could have easily been out of the tournament but saved a match point with brave and attacking tennis. Her self-belief is always incredibly high. Even though they are great friends as well as siblings, there will be no friendship on the court and both will be fighting hard to add to their Grand Slam tally.

Initially the public didn’t feel that they could back either player in the finals and at the start of their battles there was a lot of scepticism about their meetings, but that is now all in the distant past. Venus beat Serena in last year’s final in what was a great advert for the women’s game.

The final of any sport is all about watching the best, and we have that with Venus and Serena battling it out on Saturday afternoon. Venus has won two of their three previous battles ahead of this fourth all-Williams final at SW19.

Serena will attempt to win her third Wimbledon title and her 11th Grand Slam – and I believe we will be seeing that happen on Saturday afternoon.
Barry Cowan blog: The final four
- Thu 02 Jul '09
Editor at Large and TV analyst Barry Cowan predicts the outcome of Friday’s Wimbledon men’s semi-finals…

Andy Murray produced his best performance of the Championships in his quarter-final victory over Juan Carlos Ferrero and will be excited about the prospect of reaching the final. He’s bound to be a bit nervous, though, given the enormity of the occasion – he’s on the brink of becoming the first British men’s finalist at the Championships since Bunny Austin lost to Donald Budge in 1938.

There are less than a handful of players with the quality and belief to beat Murray

When Murray made his debut on the tour in Barcelona back in 2005 he declared that clay was his favourite surface. Most recently the British No.1 stated the US Open is his favourite Slam and after reaching the final last year it was always felt that it would be in the hustle and bustle of New York that Britain would finally see a men’s Grand Slam champion after waiting 73 years. Personally, I have always felt Wimbledon would be his best chance to win a major.

Andy is a phenomenal tennis player who is able to cope with the internal and external pressures; this is a necessity to succeed at the highest levels in sport. However, there is one major factor that is in his favour here at Wimbledon. Given his intelligence on the court and his ability to expose his opponents’ weaknesses, there are less than a handful of players with the quality and belief to beat the Scot on grass.

Andy Roddick has had a very consistent year but I don’t put the American in the list of potential opponents that Murray could slip up against. The match can be built up as a contest between the best server in the world, Roddick, against the best returner in the men’s game, Murray. The last two multiple Wimbledon champions – Pete Sampras and Roger Federer – were, like Roddick, so dominant on serve but for the American to win here at SW19 he has to beat Murray and Federer back to back.

Federer has an 18-2 record against Roddick and Murray also has a winning 6-2 record against the American. Murray makes life so awkward for the American by chipping back the return and then at times toying with Roddick in the baseline rallies. Robert Kendrick and Stanislas Wawrinka showed that to worry Murray you have to be very committed with attacking tennis and you also need the ability to move with confidence at the net. Neither of these are Roddick’s strengths and this explains his miserable record against both Federer and Murray.

Apart from his ability to hit aces (139 in the tournament so far) he also prefers to rally from the back of the court and use his physique and mental strength to outlast his opponents, but this will not work against Murray who is also more assured in this area of the game.

The pressure is on both players. Roddick hasn’t reached a Grand Slam final for three years and is desperate to win Wimbledon and to complete his career goals. It’s inevitable he would show signs of tension in his great victory against Lleyton Hewitt in the last eight on Wednesday but he must play free and inhibited tennis to go further. As for Murray, he is giving off an impression he is growing in confidence with each match and he will expect to win and reach the final, which is why I’m very confident Murray will get to play on Sunday.

It’s a great story that Tommy Haas has reached the semi-finals. I’ve really enjoyed the German attacking the net with his brand of serve and volley tennis. Haas has been struck with so many injuries recently and he has showed great guts to reach his first semi at Wimbledon. The German saved two match points against Marin Cilic in the third round and outplayed a lacklustre Novak Djokovic in the quarter-finals.

However, tension has got the better of Haas in some really high-profile matches and he will still be smarting from his last meeting with Federer at the French Open only a few weeks ago. With Haas up two sets, 4-3 and standing at break point Federer found the line with a big, brave forehand – it showed he could still produce the goods when it mattered most.

More alarmingly, was that Haas seemed to lose hope and belief from that point and I can’t see the German being able to reverse that trend against the form player of the tournament. Federer has been sensational in all his five matches and has reached the semi-finals or better in his last 21 Grand Slams. Federer dealt with Ivo Karlovic with an ease and calmness that only happens when you’ve won so many big matches and have been able to be as consistent as the 14-times Grand Slam champion. I can’t wait for the final – Federer V Murray.
Barry Cowan blog: Can anyone stop the sisters?
- Thu 02 Jul '09
It’s the Russians against the Americans on ladies semi-finals day at Wimbledon. Editor at large and TV analyst Barry Cowan predicts the outcome…

It’s the first time since 2006 that the top four seeds are through to a women’s Grand Slam semi final and it now seems inevitable that it will be a fourth all-Williams final at Wimbledon on Saturday.

The first semi involves the Russian fourth seed Elena Dementieva who has the toughest of challenges against my favourite for the title – two-time champ Serena.

Venus will target Safina’s second serve

Dementieva has lost only 20 games in her five matches. The Russian talked about lacking motivation after her terrific end to 2008 and start to 2009 and although she has looked assured on the grass she has still yet to win a major. History suggests that at 27 years old, it’s extremely hard to win your first slam!

The number two Russian is a fantastic athlete and also possesses incredible groundstrokes. The much talked about wobbly serve has definitely improved but it still continues to be a weakness and has already delivered 33 double faults in the tournament.

Serena will target the second serve and I expect the American to go after that weakness from the start of the match. The pressure will be enormous for Dementieva and I see a straight-sets victory for the second-seeded American.

The other semi sees world No.1 and top seed Dinara Safina attempting to reach her fourth Grand Slam final and her third of the year!

Mental strength and self belief increase by producing your best tennis under pressure as the great Roger Federer has proved. The Swiss star has so many winning shots and no weaknesses, but this isn’t the case with Safina.

Safina reminds me of Lindsey Davenport with her ground shots; her real strength is that she is always looking to get the first strike in from the back.

Movement is both their weaknesses but the women’s game has gone to new levels in terms of athleticism since the Williams sisters emerged at the top and also since Davenport won her third and final Grand Slam nine years ago.

Another massive difference between Davenport and Safina is the quality of their first serves and Safina’s continued failings on the second serve on big points. Venus, like Serena, will definitely target this and I expect to see Safina to continue to berate her coach in the box as her total of 31 double faults continues to rise.

Doubts remain over the health of Venus’s left knee, but the five-time champion has been playing very well and has only lost 19 games on her run to the semi-finals. I don’t see a problem for her against Safina but I expect Serena to expose the injury on Saturday.

So, the incredible weather is set to continue on women’s semi final day along with the Williams sisters’ stranglehold at Wimbledon.
Barry Cowan blog: Men's quarter-final predictions
- Tue 30 Jun '09
Barry Cowan predicts Wednesday’s winners ahead of men’s quarter-finals day at Wimbledon…

The dream Wimbledon final that the British nation craves is still very much on track. Andy Murray produced a memorable performance on Monday evening against Stanislas Wawrinka in a match that will be remembered for two factors.

Murray beat Ferrero at Queen’s and I expect the same outcome

First, history was made as the two players competed in the first full match under the new retractable roof and, second, it was also the latest finish ever witnessed at the Championships. The match ended at 10.39pm and it was only fitting that history was created with Murray winning an epic. The world No.3 had to dig deep mentally and physically to win the best match of the tournament.

Murray started very tentatively and I was very impressed that the Scot recognised during the match that he had to play more aggressive tennis from the baseline than he had done in his opening three matches. This was required to blunt Stan’s explosive hitting.

Murray will benefit from a day off and he will relish the prospect of playing the big surprise in the last eight, Juan Carlos Ferrero. Murray beat the Spaniard easily on his way to winning at Queen’s and I expect the same outcome on Wednesday.

Providing Murray beats Ferrero, he will play Andy Roddick or Lleyton Hewitt on Friday. Out of the four quarter-final matches this is the hardest to call. Roddick has won their last four, with the most recent being at Queen’s two weeks ago.

Hewitt had career-threatening surgery on his hip in late 2008 and his run this year is so inspiring to anyone who is trying to get back to the top after dropping down the rankings.

Roddick has had a solid year in 2009 and in the last 16 he served so well against Tomas Berdych. The American didn’t face a single break point and hit the mark with an impressive 70% of his first serves. I believe he will reach that figure against Hewitt and this will prove too much for the Aussie.

Earlier on Monday, Wawrinka’s Davis Cup teammate Roger Federer again looked so composed and continued his recent great form to win in three sets against Robin Soderling.

Federer won two sets with tie-breaks, and this will help the five-time champion in his quarter-final against the best server in the men’s game, Ivo Karlovic. You have to be mentally ready to play tie-breaks against Karlovic!

The word No.2 has a great record against the Croat – he has only ever lost his serve once in 120 service games in their nine meetings. Karlovic has been serving ridiculously well, he hasn’t lost serve in the tournament and hasn’t even faced a break point in his last three matches against great players such as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco.

Federer has won eight of their nine matches and has also won nine out of the 12 tie-breaks they have played. It won’t be easy for Federer, but I expect him to continue his incredible record of reaching at least the semi-finals at the last 21 Grand Slams he has played.

Tommy Haas and Novak Djokovic also line up in the bottom half. Although Haas beat Djokovic in Halle two weeks ago, he will need to produce one of his best matches ever in Grand Slam tennis to beat the Serb and reach his first Wimbledon semi-final.

Haas has produced some stunning all-round tennis in his four matches so far but so has Djokovic! The world No.4, like all great players, gets better with each match at the big events and this will prove too much for the German and will set up an exciting semi with Federer.