No.1 on the line in London for Feds and Rafa

Rafael Nada

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Tears in Melbourne. A tantrum in Miami. Tendinitis trouble. A first Roland Garros defeat. A career slam. A relinquished Wimbledon title defence. Fifteen Grand Slams. Marriage and twins. Divorcing parents. Two months on the sidelines. A creditable semi-final run in New York, and a shock US Open final defeat.

After another season of intertwined fates, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will now do battle for the season-ending world No.1 crown at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.

And, fittingly after a season in which the top two players in the world have only stood across the net from each other twice, it could all be decided without the duo even facing one another at the O2 arena.

The World Tour Finals kick off on Sunday with a potential 1500 rankings points on the table, putting Nadal, with 9205 points after an injury-plagued season, within striking distance of Federer’s 10,150 haul – but only just.

945 points may seem like a lot for Nadal to make up, but in truth he came within one point of handing Federer the year-end title – against Nicolas Almagro in Paris.

Had the world No.2 not recovered from match point down five times in his second-round match against his fellow Spaniard, the race would officially be over.

But that win, coupled with Federer’s shock early exit to Julien Benneteau, has kept the top spot race alive.

Despite that, this is one contest that Federer can safely assume is in his own hands. Match or outdo the Spaniard in London, and the hallowed year-end No.1 is his for a fifth time.

Not only that, but Federer would become just the second player to reclaim the year-end top spot from another player. The only other man to have ever returned to the top is Ivan Lendl, who saw his three-year rankings reign ended by Mats Wilander in 1988 before returning to the top spot by the end of 1989.

Not only that, but the Swiss has a formidable record at the season’s curtain call. His 27-5 match record has brought him four titles from five straight finals between 2003-07, putting him just one crown behind Pete Sampras and Lendl.

In contrast, Nadal has not yet lit up a season ending championship. In both 2006 and 2007 he went 2-1 in round-robin play but fell in the semi-finals twice, missing last year’s event through injury.

But at the end of a rollercoaster season, few would put it past the Spaniard to mount one last assault on a Federer stronghold. Not least as, with the duo being separated by their seedings in the round robin stage, he could do so without facing the world No.1.

Here comes the science bit…

Rafael Nadal will end the year as world No.1:

If he goes undefeated in London, claiming the full 1500, and Federer doesn’t win all three of his round robin matches or reach the final

If he goes undefeated in the round robins but loses his semi-final, and Federer fails to post a single win

If he wins two out of the three round robin matches on his way to the title, and Federer doesn’t win two or do a Venus WIlliams and reach the final with one round robin win