Dave Sammel's clay court predictions

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So the clay court season is under way and the red dirt is looking as easy on the eye as it does every year.

With that in mind, MCTA managing director and tennishead coaching editor, big Dave Sammel, received a call from us.

We wanted to hear what he thinks about the European clay-court grind and what he thinks might happen on the red stuff over next six weeks or so…

On Rafa…
The men’s scene on clay is predictably Rafael Nadal versus the field with Rafa most likely to dominate again – just like he did in Monte Carlo last week. Having said that, I think the pressure is a little off Roger Federer this season since no one is expecting him to win the French so I think he may well make the final again and hope – against all the odds – that someone other than Rafa is standing at the other end on the last day of the tournament.

On Muzza…
The unknown quantity is for sure Andy Murray and I fully anticipate a strong challenge especially after getting off to a good start and beating Nikolay Davydenko last week. This will fuel his belief on a surface that should suit him because he is an excellent mover with a good tennis brain. I believe he will be the world No.3 before Wimbledon unless Novak Djokovic can pull a rabbit as big as winning the French out of his kit bag.

On shocks…
Some surprises may come from Davydenko, David Nalbandian (who has not had a great clay-court season in years, so probably not) and Fernando Verdasco who needs to show quickly that Miami was just a blip and his mission is still very much alive to make the top four or five. Generally someone emerges as dangerous but at present I’m not seeing anyone else on a major mission.

On gender differences…
While the men are predictable the women are totally not. Who will win the French? I don’t think either Venus Williams or Serena Williams are solid enough or mentally prepared to grind enough to win and defending champion Ana Ivanovic I think will struggle unless she steps onto the centre court with a wave of ‘that winning feeling’ inspiring her to reach the heights of last year.

On the rest…
So that leaves us with Jelena Jankovic, Elena Dementieva, Dinara Safina, Victoria Azarenka, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Agnieszka Radwanska and no doubt another ‘ova’ will impress. I fancy Jankovic to finally win a Slam if she can relax to keep enough pace in her game and let her legs do the work, because she is fast and can run all day. She tends to hit short and lose pace on her shots when she gets tight which allows girls to come at her. If she defends aggressively she will be hard to beat.

On ‘dirt’ dynamics…
As with every clay season the front-runners emerge and build towards the French Open. It is not a surface where players don’t feature at all or suddenly turn it on at the French. Clay is a momentum surface more than any of the others, so watch form build and see if you can pick the contenders by the time Roland Garros kicks off.

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